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North Korea said Wednesday that it has the ability to miniaturize nuclear weapons, a key step toward building nuclear missiles.
North Korea said Wednesday that it has the ability to miniaturize nuclear weapons, a key step toward building nuclear missiles.
Analysts
and U.S. officials have said previously that they suspected Kim Jong
Un's regime was capable of the technical feat, which is needed to fit a
nuclear device on the tip of a ballistic missile.
"We
have had the capability of miniaturizing nuclear warheads, as well as
producing multiform weapons, for some time," the North Korean military
said in a statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
"We can also guarantee the accuracy
not only of short-to-mid-range but also long-range rocket launches, for
which we have had the technology for a long time," the statement said.
Claim echoes U.S. military assessments
Pyongyang's
announcement about miniaturization, the first time it has publicly made
such a claim, tallies with some recent assessments from senior U.S.
military officials.
U.S. Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of U.S. forces in Korea, said in October that he thought North Korea was capable of miniaturizing a nuclear device.
And Adm. Bill Gortney, the commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command, told reporters last month
that the U.S. military believed that Pyongyang could put a nuclear
weapon on a road-mobile missile and "shoot it at the (U.S.) homeland."
Gortney
added, though, that the United States doesn't think that the missile in
question, the KN-08, has been tested. And he said he was confident U.S.
defenses would be able to intercept any potential North Korean attack.
Analysts suspect North Korean nuclear advances
Gauging
the progress of North Korea's nuclear weapons program is a tricky
business. Kim Jong Un's regime generally cloaks its efforts in secrecy
and occasionally trumpets claims of advances through propaganda outlets,
leaving the rest of the world to try to join up the dots.
Analysts
have said Kim Jong Un's regime may well already be able to fit nuclear
warheads on ground-launched missiles that can reach South Korea and
Japan.
David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector, recently told CNN
that Pyongyang could have 10 to 15 nuclear weapons at this point and
that it could grow that amount by several weapons per year.
Fashioning
a nuclear device small enough to fit on the tip of a ballistic missile
is a difficult task. North Korea had signaled its intent to achieve that
goal at the time of its most recent nuclear test, in 2013. It described
the device it tested then as "a smaller and lighter" bomb than the ones
it detonated in 2006 and 2009.
Miniaturization one of several key steps
Miniaturizing a nuclear weapon is one key part of building a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile.
The
nuclear device also needs to be tough enough to be able to withstand
the flight on a ballistic missile, experts say, and be housed in a
"reentry vehicle" that can endure the intense heat generated by coming
back into the earth's atmosphere.
In a February post for the North Korea watching blog 38 North, the arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis said he thought North Korea was probably able to carry out each of those three steps.
But
big questions remain about the reliability and accuracy of any weapon
the North Koreans might be able to put together, wrote Lewis, who is the
director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin
Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Adding to concerns, North Korea claimed earlier this month that it had successfully tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile. A South Korean defense official said, though, that the North was believed to still be years away from having a fully operational submarine missile system.
Nuclear progress likely to undermine regional stability
The
apparent progress of the North Korean regime's nuclear weapons program
is threatening to upend the United States' strategic calculations in the
region.
"Pyongyang's advances in
mobile ICBM capabilities could end up undermining the state of stable
deterrence that currently exists on the Korean Peninsula," Victor Cha,
Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote
in an opinion article
for CNN last month. "Put simply, these capabilities could give North
Korea confidence that it is immune from any U.S. counterstrikes."
North
Korea has demanded that the United States recognize it as a nuclear
power. But the U.S. has said North Korean commitment to denuclearization
is the starting point for any negotiations between the two sides.
North
Korea is the subject of a raft of U.N. Security Council sanctions
because of its nuclear tests and long-range rocket launches.
But
the international measures don't appear to have stopped Pyongyang from
continuing to develop its weapons programs, which it says it needs as a
deterrent to the threat it perceives from the United States.
"I
think we have rapidly approached the point of no return over the past
five-years," Joel Wit, a visiting scholar at the U.S.-Korea Institute at
Johns Hopkins University, said earlier this month. "This program has
gained a lot of momentum over the past few years and not much has been
done to stop it."